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This is a study of the applicability of prospect theory to military decision making.Prospect theory posits that the decision maker’s reference point determines thedomain in which he makes a decision. One implication of this study is that if the decision maker can do the same for asubordinate or for an enemy, he may be better able to predict their responses in agiven situation. The project’s goal is to develop a framework for assessing riskpropensity. It does this by first describing the military decision-making process andconcluding that it is a rational decision-making process. Second, this study describesprospect theory and matches the key aspects of the theory with the militarydecision-making process. Third, it proposes a framework for assessing riskpropensity. The theory is tested in a case study of Gen Dwight D. Eisenhower’s 1944decision to launch Operation Market Garden. This decision is analyzed in terms ofGraham T. Allison’s three models for decision making and prospect theory todetermine which model or theory seems to provide the best explanations for Eisenhower’s decision....

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INTRODUCTION . . . . 1 MILITARY DECISION MAKING AND PROSPECT THEORY. . . . 5 MARKET GARDEN: CALCULATED RISK OR FOOLISH GAMBLE? . . . . 19 APPLYING THE FRAMEWORK . . . . 39 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . 47...

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According to CMSgt Cari Kent, 30th Space Wing command chief, it is at basic training that Airmen learn everything they need to succeed in the Air Force.1 In recent incidents, Airmen have exhibited unacceptable actions. These range from transporting cruise missiles loaded with warheads from Minot to Barksdale AFB in 2007 and erroneously shipping nuclear-missile fuses to Taiwan in 2006, to other lesser-known infractions in the Air Force. Certainly, the remedy to such attitudes and behaviors could not be simply applying lessons learned at basic training. Or could the application of the basics taught to initial trainees have changed the course of some of these events? What do Airmen experience at basic training that leads the chief to this conclusion?...

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Minelaying by the U.S. Army Air Forces (AAF) had to overcome the absence of doctrine, serious questions of service autonomy, and preconceptions about naval and air force traditional roles. Though this initially unappreciated weapon gained considerable acceptance during the years of World War II, mines were not again dropped from aircraft in combat until the Vietnam War. During the Cold War, the U.S. Air Force gave little effort to its collateral maritime missions until concern grew over containing an expanding Soviet naval threat. Today, Air Force capabilities for aerial minelaying and other naval missions remain an important (though little appreciated) means for projecting long-range air power in support of "Global Reach--Global Power."...

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1. MINE WARFARE..................3 Theory and History Mines and How They Worked 2. WORLD WAR II AERIAL MINELAYING IN EUROPE............7 First Use by Germany The Royal Air Force Fights Back 3. MINELAY’ING IN JAPAN’S "OUTER ZONE" -1942-1945............10 Early Plans and Capability U.S. Navy Submarine and Surface Laid Mines Air Operations Minelaying by Naval Aviation 4. AAF MINELAYING IN JAPAN/S "INNER ZONE" -1945...............18 Planning "Operation Starvation LeMay and the XXI Bomber Command 5. PLAN AND REALITY -THE EFFECTIVENESS OF AAF AERIAL MINELAYING............26 Plans and Opportunities “Outer Zone" Results “Inner Zone" Results Japanese Mine Countermeasures World War II Conclusions 6. AERIAL MINELAYING -AN AIR FORCE MISSION............31 Contributions of the Army Air Forces Mines and the Postwar Air Force Mines in Three Limited Wars The Lessons -Are They Learned? Applications in the Future Conclusion...

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I set a goal of utilizing primary sources as the basis for this paper. I wanted to research what the key players wrote or said at the time or later in their memoirs. But, in addition to finding information relevant to this thesis....

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The study presents and analyzes the pros and cons of three possible options: (1) increasing active duty manning in all Guard fighter units, (2) increasing active duty manning in only a few select Guard fighter units, and (3) moving most, if not all, of the fighters out of the Guard and into the active duty force. If current trends play out, the US military will benefit from having thought about, discussed, and debated this problem. In their insightful study, Lieutenant Colonels Lucas and Johnson provide a fresh approach to finding a solution....

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Major Rick Paulsen's study analyzes the role of United States nuclear weapons in this new, multipolar environment. He begins with a historical look at the role nuclear weapons have played in US defense policy since 1945. He reviews current unclassified guidance and the spectrum of public opinion on where the United States should be going with its nuclear weapons programs . He then surveys the potential threat of weapons of mass destruction. Major Paulsen concludes his study by suggesting nuclear force capabilities that would provide the United States with a viable deterrent for the post-cold war era. His recommendations address a broad range of issues that focus on developing a coherent nuclear strategy....

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DISCLAIMER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii ABOUT THE AUTHOR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi ABSTRACT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii 1 A NEED FOR CHANGE? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 2 GOLDWATER-NICHOLS AS A MODEL FOR INTELLIGENCE REFORM . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 3 REFORMING INTELLIGENCE: A 50-YEAR EFFORT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 4 THE 9/11 REPORT AND INTELLIGENCE REFORM LEGISLATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 5 THE PUSH AND PULL OF INTELLIGENCE REFORM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 6 THE QUESTION OF BALANCE . . . . . . . . . 139 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156 Appendix A INTERVIEWS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 B CHRONOLOGY OF INTELLIGE...

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Developed as a souvenir for Sixth US Army's decommissioning in 1995, "Born of War ... Dedicated to Peace" details the unit's history from World War II until its flag was furled. Author Sharon E. Cathcart (writing under her previous by-line of Sharon E. Everett-Roles) and military historian Lt. Col. Edward J. Erickson composed the text; the layout was designed by Michael Murphy and historical photos researched by Sgt. Maj. Pat Maddox. Military history buffs are sure to be fascinated by this text....

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This thesis focuses on operational-level coalition air force interactions in three conflicts: the Korean War (1950–53), the Persian Gulf War (1990–91), and the Balkan Air Campaign (1992–95). The capability that coalition air forces offer usually benefits the overall effort, while each member’s diverging desires (or will) can degrade overall unity of effort. Analysis of the three conflicts presented here suggests several coalition considerations for air component commanders. Because each case in this thesis had unique elements that may have affected the coalition, a comparison of these elements may also reveal considerations which are important to the air component commander. Finally, the current US programs to train joint force air component commanders and operational-level staffs show promising trends for improving our ability to operate within a coalition....

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INTRODUCTION . . . . 1 THE KOREAN WAR . . . . . . 7 THE PERSIAN GULF WAR . . . . . . 23 THE BALKAN AIR CAMPAIGN . . . . 37 CONCLUSIONS . . . . . 51 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . 61...

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This paper draws on well-established close air support (CAS) doctrine and organizational models to build new intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) organizational and execution constructs to bridge the gap between theater-level ISR assets and tactical operations. These models bind ISR asset, exploiter, CAOC, and the supported unit through face-to-face interactions and standardized processes that apply across any theater of operations or combatant command....

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This study proposes a joint architecture that potentially would reduce the resources required to procure, move, store, and maintain bare base assets. Because expeditionary basing is one of its distinctive capabilities, the Air Force should be designated as the executive agent for joint bare base operations, with each service continuing to train its bare base support forces and meet its service-specific requirements....

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In this paper, Col David B. Hume, who served as an expeditionary air support operation group commander in Operation Iraqi Freedom, explores some of the mission employment and doctrinal issues associated with this emerging weapons system and argues that weaponized unmanned aircrafts should be commanded and controlled just like close-air-support (CAS) assets....

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Colonel Lenderman explores the increase in the number and influence of mobility generals in the late twentieth century and looks toward the future, presenting possible reasons why these generals will continue to rise or why their opportunities may be limited. She concludes by discussing the significance of this study as it pertains to the Air Force’s development and the nation’s security....

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1 MAHAN AND THE PURPOSE OF AIRPOWER . .1 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 2 THE RISE OF MOBILITY OPERATIONS . . . . 9 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 3 THE RISE OF MOBILITY GENERALS . . . . . . 27 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 4 THE FUTURE OF MOBILITY GENERALS . . . .61 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .72 5 CONCLUSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .77 BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79...

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Air Combat Command (ACC) relies on Air Combat Maneuvering Instrumentation (ACMI) systems for air-to-air combat training and large force employment flight debrief. Although extremely effective training enhancements, these systems are enormously expensive and typically require flight over restricted airspace ranges. These factors have prevented fleetwide implementation of ACMI training on a daily basis. This study presents a summary of the development of the current and proposed family of ACMI systems and the capabilities each system provides. The Kadena Interim Training System provides a suitable case study to compare requirements of current ACMI features to the capabilities available using internal components....

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1 BACKGROUND . . . . 1 2 ACMI CONCEPTS, SOLUTIONS, AND REQUIREMENTS AND LIMITATIONS . . . . 13 3 ACMI SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AND KADENA INTERIM TRAINING SYSTEM . . . . . 21 4 PROPOSAL FOR INTERNAL SOLUTIONS . . . . . 27 5 POTENTIAL SYSTEM COMPONENTS AND CONFIGURATION . . . . . 45 6 POTENTIAL ADVANTAGES. . . . 55 7 CONCLUSIONS. . . . 63 8 RECOMMENDATIONS . . . . . 67...

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In this paper, I seek to demonstrate that the methods of using airpower to take the fight to the enemy and protect our ground forces during small wars need not involve the most advanced aircraft available. This “low-tech” approach does not suggest using lesser technology per se but proposes a different look for the types of aircraft that can perform a specific mission and for their manner of employment—that of protecting ground forces while combating the elusive insurgent. These same aircraft can prove invaluable in training an indigenous force to take the fight forward. By looking to relatively inexpensive, off-the-shelf aircraft, the Air Force can protect its ground-based charges and cement a relationship with embattled nations by helping them help themselves....

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Present and future force presentation options include more than just the single air domain, for the presentation of Air Force operations now includes the air, space, and cyberspace domains....

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DISCLAIMER . . . .ii FUTURE OPERATOR SYMPOSIUM PROCEEDINGS Introduction/Background . . . .1 Methodology . . . .2 Determining the Future Operator Definition . . . . 5 Cross-domain Competencies . . . . 7 Cross-domain Force Development Path . . . .9 Force Development Paradigms . . . .18 Culture . . . .19 Summary . . . . .21...

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The predictable nature of American strategic bombing may make it vulnerable to a perceptive enemy. By offering him the opportunity to design, test, and employ countermeasures, American air commanders may have inadvertently limited their ability to achieve success....

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1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . 1 Notes . . . . 3 2 THE EARLY YEARS AND WORLD WAR I . . . . 5 Notes . . . . 7 3 THE INTERWAR YEARS . . . . 9 Notes . . . .13 4 WORLD WAR II: THE EUROPEAN THEATER . . . . .15 Notes . . . .20 5 WORLD WAR II: THE PACIFIC THEATER . . . .23 Notes . . . .28 6 LIMITED WARFARE . . .31 Notes . . . .37 7 THE FUTURE . . . .39 Notes . . . .41...